Robinhood, after rising success with its prediction markets in the U.S., is now planning to push the product overseas, specifically into the UK and EU. The company is in talks with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and exploring regulatory frameworks to allow users there to trade on outcomes like economic data, elections, or sports. The expansion is a strategic move to globalize its event contract business, though it faces challenges around how such contracts are classified under local laws.
What Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Are
The Prediction Markets Hub lets users place contracts on real-world events such as the next federal funds rate decision or sports results. Though it looks like a betting platform, Robinhood structures the product as derivatives, routing traffic through Kalshi, a U.S. CFTC-regulated exchange. That allows event contracts to be treated under derivative law, not gambling statutes.
By running it through a regulated derivatives venue, Robinhood maintains a legal and compliance buffer that lets it offer event contracts in the U.S. without crossing into unlicensed territory.
Why UK & EU Matter
Robinhood sees strong demand from users in the UK and the European Union for prediction markets. Expanding there gives them access to large, financially engaged populations familiar with derivatives and regulated markets. It also opens a way to diversify beyond U.S.-centric growth, hedging against domestic regulatory uncertainty by building a global presence.
Moreover, the EU’s regulatory framework, especially under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regime, may offer more pathways for innovative finance products than the UK’s current stance. Robinhood may try to lean on such frameworks to operate prediction markets with clarity and guardrails.
Classification Hurdles & Regulatory Questions
One of the main obstacles to European rollout is “legal classification.” In the U.S., event contracts are considered futures and fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction. In the UK or EU, they might fall under gambling laws or securities regulation, depending on how authorities interpret them. That complicates everything from licensing to consumer protection rules.
Robinhood is actively communicating with regulators to explore how to classify event contracts across jurisdictions, whether they’d require a license, how much oversight is needed, and whether they must embed safeguards against manipulation or misuse.
As JB Mackenzie, VP and GM of Futures and International at Robinhood, says: “So the question would be, where is swap oversight, let’s say in the UK? … How do we work it?”
The U.S. Case Gives Them Credibility
Robinhood’s domestic track record helps its arguments abroad. In the U.S., they launched the Prediction Markets Hub by integrating with Kalshi, which eliminated many legal uncertainties. That gives them a blueprint to show regulators how prediction markets can be operated responsibly, with compliance, audits, and oversight.
Robinhood’s event contracts have already seen billions in volume. That kind of traction gives them data points to show regulators that demand exists and product design can scale safely.
Risks and What Could Derail the Expansion
Even as ambition runs high, several risks loom:
Regulatory Rejection: Authorities may outright reject or severely limit event contracts under gambling or derivatives laws.
Classification Disputes: If regulators classify them as securities, the compliance bar rises significantly.
Consumer Protection: Misuse, fraud, or market manipulation concerns may make regulators wary of letting prediction markets run freely.
Cross-border enforcement: Differences in laws across jurisdictions might force Robinhood to launch a version in some countries but not others.
Robinhood will have to balance ambition with legal pragmatism, potentially launching in countries with more flexible regimes first or offering restricted versions while full permission is pending.
What to Watch Next
How the UK’s FCA responds and whether they provide a path for derivative-like event contracts.
Whether Robinhood tries to launch first in EU states with more favorable regulation.
How Robinhood structures safeguards, limits, oracle design, and dispute resolution to ease regulatory concerns.
Volume and adoption once launched, and how that can shift public perception of prediction markets.
Any pushback from gambling oversight bodies or exchanges impacted by competition.
Conclusion
Robinhood’s plans to bring prediction markets to the UK and EU mark a bold shift in how the company grows its event contract business. The expansion offers both opportunity and regulatory complexity; classification, licensing, and consumer protections will all be hurdles.
If they manage it, Robinhood could set a new standard for event-based financial products in Europe. The move underlines how prediction markets are evolving beyond novelty into serious derivatives tools. Whether they succeed depends on regulatory alignment and prudent design.